Despite controversy in the popular media over Italy's crusade against the Getty and the NY Metropolitan Museum, prices at the high end of the antiquities market continue to accelerate at unprecedented speed.
Several factors are contributing to the price inflation of antiquities. First, supply is tightening due to more restrictive import controls. Second, quality is scarce resulting in a feeding frenzy of sorts for the best objects by experienced dealers. Third, as I have been predicting for the past five years, provenance has become king in the current environment. Objects with long established histories continue to outpace those without.
To illustrate the historic acceleration of antiquities prices, I have performed an analysis of all the objects sold at the two major New York auction houses since 1999. From the chart at right, it is clear that we are seeing a nearly 100% increase in just the past 5 years. Further, my preliminary analysis of 2006 indicates that the average price per object sold in NY has jumped more than 25%, to an average of $25,588 per object!
Does this mean it is a better time to sell than buy? Not necessarily. While sellers may be positioned to reap attractive appreciation on objects held for 10 years or more, there appears to be no change in sight to alter the current market dynamics. Prices are likely to continue to increase. Antiquities, as a category, continues to lag most other fine art from a historical price perspective. Buying ancient art now that you truly love may have the added advantage of being a very smart investment a decade or more down the road.
While prices at auction have soared out of reach for many, the good news for collectors is that there are about two dozen top tier antiquities dealers worldwide, including Fragments of Time in the United States, who can provide quality objects at fair prices. The benefit of working with a dealer is that objects in inventory were likely acquired in prior years so you are receiving an implied "discount" simply by virtue of the time the object has been in the dealer's possession.
Another key advantage to working with a reputable dealer is liquidity. Auction houses have had to become extremely selective in the objects they accept for consignment. Buying from a spurious source could stigmatize an object and prevent an auction house from accepting it for consignment.
Fragments of Time, for instance, is recognized internationally for its expertise and ethical dealing standards and is frequently listed as a provenance in major auction house catalogues.
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